Blargh Blog

Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Close Elections

With 98% of precincts reporting in Wyoming's Congressional district, the incumbent, Barbara Cubin (R), currently has a 653 vote lead. The Lindgren method (which assumes that unreported precincts will vote the same as reported precincts in the same county) projects Cubin to finish 2 votes behind Gary Trauner (D).

Trauner fans shouldn't wait up, and neither should Cubin fans (identify yourselves and I'll link), since this one is not going to be decided tonight.

Update (2:58 AM): After corrections in the already reported precincts, Cubin has stretched her lead to 700 votes, and after correcting my projection to be based on the exact number of precincts (rather than the rounded percentage that CNN reports), she is now projected to hang on to a 26 vote lead. The nation is still waiting on those last 12 precincts from Carbon County.

Update II (11/8): Carbon County is obviously not homogenous, and with the rest of the precincts in Cubin has extended her lead to 970 votes. They aren't calling the election yet, and there might be a recount.


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